# Scenario

> Scenario connects to Stripe, QuickBooks, Xero, FreeAgent or Sage and gives founders a business health score, a trained revenue forecast and plain-English answers to what-if questions about pricing, churn, hiring and growth.

Scenario is a UK web app (https://use-scenario.com) for founders of subscription businesses and small businesses that run their books in accounting software.

## What it does
- Business health score from 0 to 100, with the reason behind each part and how many points fixing it would add.
- Next month's revenue forecast, trained on the business's own history and tested on months it wasn't trained on, with a likely range.
- What-if scenarios: price changes, churn, new revenue, hiring and other costs.
- Working back from a revenue goal to what prices, new customers or churn would need to be.
- Revenue by Stripe product and price, and payments: what was collected, what failed and why, money recovered by retries, refunds and disputes.
- Every customer by name with a status (at risk, renewing soon, new, loyal), and a message ready for each failed payment or customer who left.
- Works without Stripe too: three rough numbers, or a bank statement (CSV), give a runway straight away.
- Scenario Analytics: cookieless website analytics (visitors, sources, pages, countries, devices, real-user page speed and a speed test), next to the business's revenue. No cookies, and no IP addresses stored. Included on every plan.
- An assistant that answers questions about revenue, costs, cash and uploaded files in plain English, and remembers what the founder tells it (costs, cash in the bank, busy and quiet seasons).

## Where the numbers come from
- Stripe (subscription revenue, read-only).
- QuickBooks, Xero, FreeAgent or Sage (income by account, costs, profit, cash, read-only). Income is split into recurring (for example lettings fees or retainers) and one-off (for example sales commission or projects).
- Files and notes the founder adds.
Scenario never changes anything in a connected account. Its figures are estimates, not financial advice.

## Pricing (GBP)
- Try Free: £0.
- Solo: £12 a month or £120 a year, 200 credits a month. For founders making regular decisions.
- Growth: £29 a month or £288 a year, 600 credits a month. For a business that wants a closer view.
- Team: £79 a month or £780 a year, 2,000 credits a month. For more questions across the business.

## How accurate it is (benchmarks)
Tested on simulated businesses, each replayed with only the data known at the time, forecasting revenue 30 days ahead. Only measures that held on every run are stated:
- Against GPT‑6‑Astra (OpenAI's frontier model, at medium reasoning, given the same figures): real revenue inside the forecast range: Scenario 84%, GPT‑6‑Astra 77%; forecasts within 5% of the real figure: Scenario 55%, GPT‑6‑Astra 53%. 3 runs, 456 forecasts of revenue 30 days ahead on simulated businesses, each replayed with only the data known at the time. GPT‑6‑Astra at medium reasoning, given the same figures. Head to head and on average miss the two were even. Simulated data, 29 Sept 2026. Your results will vary.
- Against a plain AI (gpt-oss-120b) (an open model given the same figures): real revenue inside the forecast range: Scenario 84%, Plain AI 50%; forecasts answered: Scenario 100%, Plain AI 87%. 3 runs, 528 forecasts of revenue 30 days ahead on simulated businesses, each replayed with only the data known at the time. Plain AI: gpt-oss-120b given the same figures. Simulated data, 27 Sept 2026. Your results will vary.

## Blog (plain Markdown versions for assistants)
- [Customer lifetime value (LTV): how to work it out simply](https://use-scenario.com/blog/customer-lifetime-value.md): Customer lifetime value is what an average customer pays you before they leave. For a subscription business, divide what a customer pays a month by your monthly churn rate. At £30 a month and 5% churn, that's £30 ÷ 0.05 = £600.
- [How to calculate churn rate, and what it really costs you](https://use-scenario.com/blog/how-to-calculate-churn-rate.md): Divide the customers who cancelled in a month by the customers you had at the start of that month. 10 cancellations from 200 customers is 5% monthly churn. Divide 1 by that to get how many months a customer stays on average.
- [How to calculate MRR (monthly recurring revenue) properly](https://use-scenario.com/blog/how-to-calculate-mrr.md): MRR is the monthly value of every active subscription today. Add up what each paying customer pays per month, turning annual plans into a monthly figure (divide by 12), and leave out one-off charges, unpaid trials and customers who have already cancelled.
- [Stripe failed payments: why they happen and how to win them back](https://use-scenario.com/blog/stripe-failed-payments.md): Most Stripe failed payments on subscriptions aren't customers leaving: the card expired, the account was short that day, or the bank wanted extra verification. Turn on retries, send a short personal message to anyone whose payment is still unpaid after a few days, and check the decline reason first.
- [AI revenue forecasting: how a calculator beat GPT-6-Astra](https://use-scenario.com/blog/ai-revenue-forecasting-gpt-6-astra.md): Over three runs and 456 forecasts on simulated businesses, real revenue landed inside Scenario's forecast range 84% of the time vs 77% for GPT-6-Astra, and within 5% slightly more often (55% vs 53%). Head to head, they were even.
- [Default alive or default dead? How to check in five minutes](https://use-scenario.com/blog/default-alive-or-default-dead.md): You're default alive if revenue will overtake costs before the cash runs out, with no new funding. Roll revenue forward at its current growth rate, subtract costs each month from cash, and see which comes first.
- [How to raise SaaS prices without losing revenue](https://use-scenario.com/blog/how-to-raise-saas-prices.md): A price rise pays off as long as the customers it costs you are fewer than r ÷ (1 + r) of your base: about 9% for a 10% rise. Know your normal churn, start with new customers if unsure, and announce it plainly.

## Links
- Everything on one page, for assistants: https://use-scenario.com/llms-full.txt
- Facts for AI assistants (human-readable): https://use-scenario.com/ai
- Live demo (no sign-up): https://use-scenario.com/demo
- Blog: https://use-scenario.com/blog
- Home and pricing: https://use-scenario.com/
- SaaS price increase calculator: https://use-scenario.com/saas-price-increase-calculator
- Runway calculator (how long cash lasts): https://use-scenario.com/runway-calculator
- SaaS churn calculator (churn, lifetime, LTV): https://use-scenario.com/saas-churn-calculator
- Website speed test: https://use-scenario.com/website-speed-test
- MRR milestone card maker: https://use-scenario.com/mrr-milestone-card
- Help centre (FAQ): https://use-scenario.com/help
- Security: https://use-scenario.com/security
- Privacy notice: https://use-scenario.com/privacy
- Terms: https://use-scenario.com/terms